UK's £400 Billion AI Boom Figure Came From a Google-Funded Report[1][2]
The government's own forecast is less than a third of that number, and the minister calls even that one hugely uncertain.[5][4]
For about two years, the UK government told the public that AI could add £400 billion to the economy.[1] AI minister Kanishka Narayan has now said in a parliamentary answer that the figure came from a 2023 report Google commissioned and Public First, now called PF Global, produced, the first recorded time the government has named Google as its source, Wired reported.[2][7]
Narayan put the government's own estimate of the gain from AI adoption and data investment at £55 billion to £140 billion by 2030, with a central figure of £120 billion.[3] That is less than a third of the headline number, and he called even the lower estimate hugely uncertain.[5][4]
Ministers had the lower estimate since at least November 2025, yet Skills England was still publishing the old figure four months later.[6] The answer also set the two numbers side by side for the first time on record, though it neither withdrew the £400 billion figure nor called it wrong.[7][8] Conservative peer Lord Holmes asked ministers in January 2025 where the figure came from and got no response.[11]
PF Global says its work for Google was independent and the judgments and assumptions were its own, but it told Wired that slower real-world adoption has pulled its central 2030 estimate much closer to the government's.[10][9] Committee chair Dame Chi Onwurah told Wired that hype is a central barrier to the digital transformation of public services.[12] Sumedha Deshmukh of the Ada Lovelace Institute told Wired the government should test the numbers it is given before building policy on them.[13]
When you see a big forecast of AI's economic payoff, check who paid for it before you put it in a pitch deck or a business plan.
HOW WE CHECKED IT
Every fact above is a numbered claim below. Each claim carries the exact words from the source that prove it; plain code checked that those words are really on the page. Then DeepSeek (deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash-1017) and ChatGPT (openai/gpt-6-luna) voted on every claim without seeing each other's votes or the reporter's evidence, and a copy desk checked that every line says no more than its claims. No lab checks its own news. Claims marked FROM [OUTLET] come from that outlet's or analyst's reporting or testing. The Council checked that the source says it.
"the country could receive an economic boost of £400 billion, thanks to AI" SOURCE ↗
"Narayan said the £400b figure “was drawn from a publicly available 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by Public First,”" SOURCE ↗
"could add £55 billion to £140 billion to the UK economy by 2030, bringing the central estimate to £120 billion" SOURCE ↗
"he said, was a “hugely uncertain” estimate" SOURCE ↗
"its own estimation of AI’s economic benefit was less than a third of that £400 billion figure" SOURCE ↗
"Ministers have had the lower estimate since at least November 2025, almost a year before this week’s admission, yet Skills England, a government agency responsible for apprenticeships, was still publishing the old figure four months later" SOURCE ↗
"the first recorded evidence WIRED could find of the government setting the two numbers side by side" SOURCE ↗
"The answer did not withdraw the £400 billion figure or say it had been wrong" SOURCE ↗
"our central estimate for the amount of potential likely to be achieved by 2030 is much closer to the Government’s number" SOURCE ↗
"all research was independent and all judgments and assumptions were their own" SOURCE ↗
"asked ministers in January 2025 about the origins of the £400 billion claim but did not receive a response" SOURCE ↗
"one of the central barriers to delivering the digital transformation of public services my committee has identified: hype" SOURCE ↗
"The government should test the numbers it is given before it builds policy on them" SOURCE ↗
SOURCES
PUBLISHED NOV 4, 2026, 8:49 AM ET · ARCHIVED NOV 4, 2026, 10:30 AM ET · SHA-256 072de1679eed
Spot an error? Email [email protected] with the story and a source. Corrections run on the story and on the ledger, permanently.
